In the world of American politics, there are few states as consequential, confounding, and consistently pivotal as Florida. The latest Morning Consult poll showing Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a mere two percentage points—within the margin of error—should ring alarm bells for Republicans and Democrats alike. It reveals a tightening race in a state that has been drifting ever more red in recent years, yet one where the vice president is making unexpected inroads.
Florida has become a bellwether of broader political trends, especially in presidential elections. Since Obama’s narrow win in 2012, the state has seen Republicans dominate at nearly every level. Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020, increasing his margin to over three percentage points in the latter race. The state has been critical to the GOP’s sense of momentum, especially during a midterm cycle in 2022 when Republicans nationwide underperformed—except in Florida, where the state seemed to embrace the red wave that didn’t materialize elsewhere.
The recent polls, however, tell a different story for 2024. Despite the GOP’s dominance, Trump’s lead over Harris is just two points—a statistical dead heat. Harris, a candidate who has not galvanized Democratic enthusiasm at the same level as Biden did in 2020, now seems to be finding an electoral foothold in this battleground state. Her campaign has focused heavily on reproductive rights, an issue that has gained renewed salience in Florida with Amendment 4 on the ballot, a measure designed to enshrine abortion rights into the state’s constitution.
This brings us to the wild card in Florida’s political calculus: the abortion debate. As Republicans across the country have learned since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, this issue is not as straightforward as many on the right hoped. Amendment 4 has drawn attention because it aims to embed abortion rights into Florida’s constitution—a potent proposition in a state with a highly religious and conservative electorate. Yet, 55% of likely voters, according to The Hill and Emerson College poll, are prepared to back the measure, an indication of a broader shift in public opinion.
Harris has seized upon this opening, launching a “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in the state, including a visit to Trump’s backyard in Palm Beach. By turning the campaign’s attention to reproductive rights, Harris is clearly betting that the pro-choice momentum, which helped Democrats stave off a Republican red wave in the 2022 midterms, will also help her in Florida. And indeed, if Amendment 4 draws out pro-choice voters in large numbers, it could tilt the scales in her favor, even in a state where Trump is expected to have a comfortable lead.
But Harris’s narrowing of the gap is not just about abortion. Florida’s electorate is changing in subtle but significant ways. While Republicans have made gains among Latino voters in the state, particularly Cuban Americans and other conservative-leaning groups, younger voters—those who are more progressive on social issues—are becoming a larger share of the electorate.
Moreover, Trump’s erratic handling of major national issues, from the pandemic to the economy, continues to haunt his political fortunes. Trump’s base in Florida remains loyal, but it’s a base that may not be expanding as fast as Harris’s coalition of moderate Democrats, suburban women, and young voters energized by the abortion debate.
The Harris campaign is banking on turning the tide in Florida, a state where the electoral math has, in recent years, favored Republicans. Winning Florida would give Harris a vital boost in a presidential race where every electoral vote will matter. On the other hand, for Trump, losing Florida would be a catastrophic blow, likely signaling his political doom in November.
Yet this is not just about Trump versus Harris. The Senate race between incumbent Rick Scott and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell adds another layer of intrigue to the electoral landscape. Scott leads Mucarsel-Powell by five points according to the latest polls, but as we have seen in other tight races, the top of the ticket has a profound effect on down-ballot races. If Harris continues to close the gap with Trump, it could have significant consequences for Scott’s reelection bid.
Ultimately, Florida in 2024 is a microcosm of the broader national debate. Trump, with his bombastic style and cult of personality, represents a defiant form of populism that has shaped the Republican Party in recent years. Harris, often seen as Biden’s understudy, is emerging as a figure willing to fight on cultural and social issues that have galvanized a new Democratic coalition.
Both candidates are betting on Florida, a state whose volatility and unpredictability continue to make it the crown jewel of American electoral politics. While the numbers suggest Trump has the edge, the tightening race and Harris’s focus on reproductive rights indicate that this red state may be more purple than it seems.
Senate Ballot Box Scores
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