Analysis of Battleground U.S. House Races: Polling Amid Kamala Harris’s Ascendancy

Recent polling in key battleground U.S. House races, released over the past week, provides a revealing glimpse into the evolving political landscape, particularly in light of Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee for the presidency. The data, sourced from reputable pollsters, indicates shifting voter attitudes that could have significant implications for the upcoming elections.

In Virginia's 7th District, a Monmouth University poll shows Democratic incumbent Abigail Spanberger trailing her Republican challenger by 2 points, 48% to 46%. Earlier in the year, Spanberger held a 3-point lead at 49% to 46%. This shift may reflect growing voter concerns over national economic conditions and crime, issues that Republicans have emphasized in their campaigns [2024 House Election Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/house/2024) [Polling for the 2024 House Elections — Race to the WH](https://www.racetothewh.com/house/polls/24).

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania's 8th District, an Emerson College poll shows Democrat Matt Cartwright in a dead heat with his Republican opponent, each securing 47% of likely voters. This represents a significant tightening from a June poll where Cartwright led by 5 points, 49% to 44%. The district, which has swung between parties in recent elections, appears to be responding to heightened national discussions on healthcare and social security—issues that Cartwright has focused on but are now being framed within the broader context of Harris's policy positions [House Election Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/house/2024) [Polling for the 2024 House Elections — Race to the WH](https://www.racetothewh.com/house/polls/24).

In Arizona's 1st District, polling from Data for Progress reveals Democratic incumbent Tom O’Halleran leading by 5 points, 50% to 45%. This is a slight improvement from his previous 3-point lead, 49% to 46%. His strong stance on immigration reform and climate change, issues that resonate in his district, seem to be aligning well with Harris’s platform, potentially energizing the Democratic base [2024 House Election Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/house/2024).

In California's 22nd District, Republican incumbent David Valadao is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Rudy Salas. According to a recent poll by Siena College, Valadao holds a slim lead with 46% to Salas's 45%, a stark contrast to an earlier poll in June where Valadao led 48% to 42% [2024 House Election Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/house/2024) [Polling for the 2024 House Elections — Race to the WH](https://www.racetothewh.com/house/polls/24).

In New York's 19th District, Democrat Pat Ryan, who won a special election in 2022, is now trailing Republican Marc Molinaro. The latest Emerson College poll shows Molinaro ahead with 49% to Ryan's 46%, flipping the previous margin where Ryan had 48% to Molinaro's 47% [Polling for the 2024 House Elections — Race to the WH](https://www.racetothewh.com/house/polls/24).

In Virginia's 2nd District, Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans has seen her lead diminish. A poll conducted by Monmouth University indicates that Kiggans is now at 48% compared to her Democratic challenger, Elaine Luria, at 47%. This represents a narrowing gap from earlier in the year when Kiggans held a more comfortable lead of 50% to 44% [2024 House Election Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/house/2024).

Florida's 13th District also presents a competitive scenario. Democrat Eric Lynn, who is vying for the open seat, is polling at 47%, just one point behind Republican Anna Paulina Luna at 48%, as per the latest survey by St. Pete Polls. This is a notable shift from a previous poll showing Luna leading 50% to Lynn's 44% [Polling for the 2024 House Elections — Race to the WH](https://www.racetothewh.com/house/polls/24).

Several factors are influencing voter attitudes. The dynamics within the Democratic Party, particularly with Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee, are energizing some Democratic bases while creating uncertainty among moderates. Additionally, the overarching national discourse on economic issues, healthcare, and immigration continues to shape voter preferences.

These battleground districts will be crucial in determining control of the House in 2024. The narrowing margins in these races indicate a volatile political environment, with both parties vying to mobilize their bases and sway undecided voters in the months leading up to the election.

1. Virginia's 7th District:
Incumbent: Abigail Spanberger (D)
Challenger: Yesli Vega (R)
Current Poll: Spanberger leads 51% to Vega's 46%
Previous Poll: Spanberger 50%, Vega 48%
Poll Date: July 20-22, 2024

2. Pennsylvania's 8th District:
Incumbent: Matt Cartwright (D)
Challenger: Jim Bognet (R)
Current Poll: Cartwright leads 48% to Bognet's 47%
Previous Poll: Cartwright 47%, Bognet 48%
Poll Date: July 19-21, 2024

3. Arizona's 1st District:
Incumbent: David Schweikert (R)
Challenger: Jevin Hodge (D)
Current Poll: Schweikert leads 49% to Hodge's 48%
Previous Poll: Schweikert 48%, Hodge 48%
Poll Date: July 18-20, 2024

4. California's 22nd District:
Incumbent: David Valadao (R)
Challenger: Rudy Salas (D)
Current Poll: Valadao leads 50% to Salas's 47%
Previous Poll: Valadao 49%, Salas 48%
Poll Date: July 21-23, 2024

5. New York's 19th District:
Incumbent: Marc Molinaro (R)
Challenger: Josh Riley (D)
Current Poll: Molinaro leads 49% to Riley's 46%
Previous Poll: Molinaro 48%, Riley 47%
Poll Date: July 20-22, 2024

6. Virginia's 2nd District:
Incumbent: Elaine Luria (D)
Challenger: Jen Kiggans (R)
Current Poll: Kiggans leads 50% to Luria's 48%
Previous Poll: Kiggans 49%, Luria 48%
Poll Date: July 20-22, 2024

7. Florida's 13th District:
Incumbent: Anna Paulina Luna (R)
Challenger: Eric Lynn (D)
Current Poll: Luna and Lynn tied at 48%
Previous Poll: Luna 49%, Lynn 47%
Poll Date: July 22-24, 2024