Biden's Crisis: Good or Bad for Trump

Biden's Campaign Dominates Headlines 

The ongoing debate about whether President Biden should continue his campaign is the main topic of political news, overshadowing former President Trump. Trump has shown uncharacteristic discipline by avoiding public statements and events, keeping himself out of the spotlight, while the Biden campaign self-destructs. This strategy has kept the public focus onto Biden and the speculation surrounding his potential withdrawal from the race. While this situation is unfavorable for Biden, it could present an opportunity for a new Democratic candidate to emerge without Trump dominating the news cycle. 

Impact on Republican Convention and Trump's VP Announcement 

Whether Biden decides to step back this week or prolongs the decision until the late August Democratic nominating convention, the speculation surrounding his campaign will overshadow the upcoming Republican Convention. Trump's announcement of his vice-presidential pick could be reduced to a mere footnote in political news. If Biden continues to resist pressure to step aside, the media will likely maintain a steady focus on Biden, leaving little room for other political coverage leading up to the Democratic convention. This media attention could harm Biden in the November general election if he remains the nominee. However, if Biden decides not to run, the speculation around potential nominees and the nominating process will dominate political news until after Labor Day, which could be detrimental to Trump's campaign that thrives on his bombastic populist style. 

Age as a Dominating Discussion Point 

If Biden stays in the race, age will become a key discussion point for both candidates. Biden will struggle to demonstrate energy and vitality, and his age problem will reflect on Trump, who might be seen by swing voters as just a healthier old man. On the other hand, if Biden steps aside, any new Democratic nominee will highlight Trump's age simply by being significantly younger. 

Uncertainty for Trump's Campaign 

Trump could find himself off-balance, not knowing who the Democrats will nominate or how to position himself in contrast. He has not yet developed a demeaning nickname for anyone other than Kamala Harris. A new Democratic nominee will target Trump with prepared political attack messaging and substantial funding. 

Fresh Eyes on a New Democrat Nominee 

Swing voters and undecideds are likely to view a new Democratic nominee with fresh eyes and an open mind. The reason these voters are undecided today is likely due to their dissatisfaction with the current choices. They may be pleased to see a new, younger, more stable candidate, both physically and mentally, compared to Biden and Trump. 

Biden stepping aside would reshuffle the political deck, potentially dealing Trump a losing hand. The GOP must prepare for a dynamic political landscape where a new Democratic candidate could change the trajectory of the 2024 election.