Control of the Senate Still Hinges on Montana

Senator Jon Tester of Montana, with his signature flat-top haircut and the demeanor of a man who might wrestle a tractor into submission, finds himself, once again, on the precipice of a political knife fight. As Democrats brace for the potentially grim consequences of the 2024 Senate races, Tester has become the embodiment of the party's precarious grip on power. The outcome in Montana will determine not only his own fate but the future of the Senate.

Democrats, naturally, are banking on Tester to hold the line. His previous electoral victories – each more improbable than the last – have fed into the mythology of Tester as a political survivor, outpacing the increasingly Republican lean of his state. He’s seen as the farmer who gets his hands dirty and still represents the dwindling hopes of Democrats in flyover country. Yet, beneath this blue-collar veneer, Tester’s electoral prospects are anything but secure.

Recent polls, such as the one conducted by AARP, show Tester trailing his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL with a sharp, if predictable, critique of Tester’s alleged alignment with the Biden-Harris agenda. Sheehy, who Republicans rallied around early to avoid a bruising primary, is precisely the kind of candidate who, in normal times, might make Tester’s campaign a mere formality of defeat. However, these are not normal times.

For Democrats, Montana’s Senate seat is essential to their ambitions. With the impending loss of Senator Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, as he heads for a political oblivion, Tester’s race has gained seismic importance. Democrats need to retain every incumbent, including Sherrod Brown in Ohio, to preserve their tenuous hold on the Senate. Even then, a majority would only be realized if Kamala Harris emerges victorious in the presidential race—an outcome that itself seems subject to the same uncertainty plaguing Tester.

Here lies the Democratic dilemma. Should they throw their resources behind Tester, who remains the last vestige of their hopes in deep-red Montana? Or should they cut their losses and focus on easier targets, like knocking off Ted Cruz in Texas or Rick Scott in Florida? For now, Democrats are doubling down on their incumbents, believing that, as Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin phrased it, "a majority starts with the incumbents." But that strategy rests on a rickety foundation.

Tester’s re-election campaign is, in every sense, an uphill battle. Montana is not the same state it was during his earlier runs. The Republicans have coalesced around Sheehy, ensuring that this race will not be the disorganized mess of past GOP efforts. What’s more, Tester’s brand of folksy authenticity has been tarnished, according to critics, by his consistent support for the Biden-Harris agenda—a branding that doesn’t play well in the increasingly conservative Montana electorate.

Tester, for his part, has not been shy about hitting back, accusing Sheehy of making unfortunate remarks about Native Americans, an important voting bloc in the state. While Sheehy’s supporters brush off these comments as inconsequential, Tester sees an opening. It’s a tactic he’s employed in the past—pivoting from his voting record to paint himself as a champion of Montana’s marginalized communities. But, in a national political climate where issues of identity and culture have become lightning rods, even this may not save him.

Meanwhile, Republicans are moving full steam ahead. Led by Senator Steve Daines, the GOP has been clear-eyed about their intentions. They are ramping up fundraising efforts to compete with the Democrats' financial war chest. Republican insiders have sounded the alarm that Democrats are on pace to outspend them in key battleground states. But as Daines reminded his colleagues, Republicans have a “gap we need to close,” and they’re working to ensure that the resources are in place to compete in swing states like Arizona and Michigan. Montana, it seems, is a linchpin for both parties’ strategies.

In the end, Tester’s fate may rest on forces beyond his control. Montana is notoriously difficult to poll, and its elections can swing on a razor’s edge. A few thousand votes can decide the outcome. Tester’s three previous victories are proof of that. But history does not repeat itself with comforting predictability.

For Democrats, Tester represents their last hope of maintaining influence in an increasingly hostile Senate map. For Republicans, a victory here would not only signal a reversal of fortune but perhaps herald the beginning of a broader, more lasting realignment in American politics.

As the race tightens and the nation watches Montana with bated breath, one thing is clear: Jon Tester may be a survivor, but the odds of him surviving this battle, while not insurmountable, have rarely looked so long.