In recent weeks, Donald Trump has said more on abortion than in the last two years combined—a telling sign that, for all his characteristic bluster, even Trump realizes he’s caught in a quagmire of his own making. As the 2024 election looms, Trump’s once clear-cut position on abortion has become an incoherent mishmash of rhetoric, strategy, and political expediency. What are we to make of his sudden reticence on an issue that once defined his presidency?
Trump was instrumental in overturning Roe v. Wade, a landmark victory for the pro-life movement. For this, he has crowed incessantly, suggesting that America was clamoring for Roe to fall. But with each passing day, as abortion emerges as a critical electoral issue, Trump has shifted into a different mode: pragmatist rather than culture warrior. Now, his tone is softer, his positions harder to pin down.
The former president, ever the populist, is no stranger to political malleability. When polling indicates a shift in public sentiment, Trump adjusts, often without a backward glance at past promises or contradictions. Nowhere is this more evident than on the topic of abortion. Just weeks ago, he praised the efforts of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to pass a restrictive six-week abortion ban. Yet in recent interviews, he’s suggested that six weeks is “too short,” further confusing both allies and opponents alike.
This isn't the first time Trump has contradicted himself on abortion, but the stakes have never been higher. Voters, including women and independents, are watching closely as he fumbles his way through policy explanations, backtracking one day and issuing clarifications the next. His latest gaffe? Suggesting support for a Florida amendment that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution—only to have his campaign “clarify” that he misspoke. Such pivoting raises the question: Does Donald Trump even understand what he stands for anymore?
Some, like Senator Elizabeth Warren, have dismissed Trump’s recent overtures on abortion rights as little more than “smoke and mirrors.” And perhaps she’s right. The Donald Trump of 2016 who suggested punishing women for abortions now claims he’ll protect women’s reproductive rights. Such a transformation, were it genuine, would be worthy of praise—if only we believed him. But, as always with Trump, the truth is harder to discern.
Therein lies the paradox. Trump’s instinctive grasp of the American electorate tells him that abortion, particularly in the wake of Roe’s demise, is a losing issue for the GOP in its most restrictive forms. Yet he is also tethered to a conservative base that demands ever-tighter abortion regulations, buoyed by the belief that government intervention should extend into the doctor’s office. Trump, eager to retain his iron grip on that base, refuses to alienate it—at least not completely. Hence, his rhetorical tightrope walk.
This vacillation is no more evident than in Trump’s reaction to Project 2025, a far-right wishlist of anti-abortion policies designed to ensure that his second term would usher in draconian federal restrictions. Despite the fact that the document mentions Trump hundreds of times, he claimed, rather unconvincingly, to have never read it. It is as though Trump is testing the waters, signaling both to pro-life activists and more moderate voters that he could, if necessary, be either their champion or their negotiator.
But Trump’s recent behavior has left the pro-life movement in a state of bewilderment. Lila Rose, a leading figure in anti-abortion circles, recently voiced frustration with Trump’s backpedaling, suggesting that her group may no longer support him. Her sentiment is echoed by anti-abortion advocates nationwide, who feel betrayed by Trump’s apparent softening on the issue. His base, once steadfast in their support, is starting to crack.
Trump’s dilemma, and indeed the GOP’s larger struggle, is that public opinion on abortion is not where it was just a few years ago. Since Dobbs, many Americans have become wary of the far-reaching consequences of strict abortion bans, particularly when they affect issues like in vitro fertilization (IVF) or contraception. Trump, ever the opportunist, seems to sense this shift. He recently proposed government-funded fertility treatments, a policy at odds with the anti-abortion movement’s broader agenda, yet designed to court women voters who might view him more favorably as a “moderate” on reproductive issues.
Yet Trump’s newfound moderation, if it can even be called that, has a hollow ring to it. How can one propose to fund fertility treatments on one hand while signaling a wink and nod to the anti-abortion hardliners on the other? Such contradictions are the hallmark of Trumpism, where policy is rarely about conviction and always about what will play well in the moment.
The American people, however, are growing weary of Trump’s endless shape-shifting. On abortion, the former president is at risk of alienating all sides of the debate: his base, who feel he’s betrayed them, and the moderate voters who recognize his pragmatism for what it is—political opportunism.
As the 2024 election approaches, Trump will continue to perform this balancing act, trying to appeal to everyone while standing firmly nowhere. But in a political landscape where voters are increasingly demanding clarity on reproductive rights, Trump’s ever-changing stance may ultimately prove to be his undoing. The man who once crowed about overturning Roe now finds himself caught in a thicket of his own contradictions, and this time, there may be no easy escape.
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