Human Costs of US Isolationism Leading to Wider European War with Russia vs. Costs of Stopping Russian Aggression in Ukraine 

Analysis of the Cost of Injured and Wounded

Scenario 1: US Isolationism Leading to Wider European War with Russia

Direct Military Engagements:

• Casualty Ratios: Historically, the ratio of wounded to killed in action (KIA) in modern conflicts is approximately 3:1 to 4:1. In World War II, the US had about 1.4 million wounded compared to over 400,000 KIA, a ratio of roughly 3.5:1 .
• Estimates for a Wider War: If a wider European war results in thousands to tens of thousands of US deaths, the number of wounded could range from tens of thousands to over 100,000, considering a 3:1 to 4:1 ratio.

Types of Injuries:

• Severity and Long-term Impact: Injuries can range from minor wounds to severe, life-changing conditions like amputations, traumatic brain injuries (TBI), and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). For example, in recent conflicts, the ratio of severe injuries (requiring long-term care) has increased due to advancements in battlefield medicine that save lives but leave many with serious injuries .

Economic Costs:

• Medical Care: Long-term medical care for wounded veterans is a significant financial burden. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) spends billions annually on medical care for veterans. For example, the VA's budget for 2020 included over $80 billion for medical care .
•  Disability Payments: The VA also provides disability compensation to injured veterans. As of 2021, the VA was paying disability benefits to over 5 million veterans, with an annual expenditure exceeding $90 billion .
• Lost Productivity: The economic impact includes lost productivity from veterans who can no longer work or have reduced work capacity due to their injuries.

Scenario 2: Stopping Russian Aggression in Ukraine

Current Engagement:

•  Casualty Ratios: If the US maintains a limited advisory and support role, the number of wounded could be relatively low. However, increased direct involvement could change these numbers significantly.
•  Estimates for Limited Engagement: If casualties remain in the hundreds (KIA), the number of wounded could range from 1,000 to 2,000 based on historical ratios.

Types of Injuries:

• Combat-Related Injuries: Even limited involvement can result in severe injuries such as amputations and TBIs, which require extensive long-term care and rehabilitation.

Economic Costs:

•  Medical and Disability Costs: The VA would incur additional costs for treating and compensating wounded service members. For context, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars resulted in over 52,000 wounded US service members, with long-term costs projected to exceed $1 trillion when including medical care and disability payments​ (Yahoo News - Latest News & Headlines)​.
•  Rehabilitation and Support: The cost of rehabilitation and support services for injured veterans can add up, requiring investments in specialized care facilities, mental health services, and vocational rehabilitation programs.

Combined Analysis of Lives Lost and Injuries

     Wider European War with Russia:

• Potential American Lives Lost: Thousands to tens of thousands.
• Potential American Wounded: Tens of thousands to over 100,000.
• Economic Costs: Billions annually in medical care, disability compensation, and lost productivity. Long-term costs could reach hundreds of billions, considering the need for ongoing support and care.

Stopping Russian Aggression in Ukraine:

• Potential American Lives Lost: Hundreds to low thousands.
• Potential American Wounded: Thousands, based on casualty ratios.
• Economic Costs: Tens of billions in immediate costs, with long-term costs potentially exceeding $100 billion, including medical care and disability compensation.

Conclusion

The human and economic costs of a wider European war with Russia are significantly higher compared to stopping Russian aggression in Ukraine. Both scenarios involve substantial long-term commitments to care for wounded service members, but the scale of casualties and financial burden in a wider war scenario would be much greater.

Sources:

1.  National World War II Museum
2.  Department of Veterans Affairs - VA Statistics
3.  Congressional Budget Office - The Veterans Health Administration’s Budget Request
4.  CRS Report for Congress - Costs of Major U.S. Wars
5.  RAND Corporation - The Cost of War: Estimated Long-Term Care Costs for Veterans
6.  Harvard Kennedy School - The Trillion Dollar War