If the election were held today … 3 Senate seats now leaning Republican

November 5, 2024, is just 139 days away. That is an eternity is US politics.  Still, armchair pundits and political commentators love to ponder the “if the election were held today” notion.  There are, however, insights gained by playing out that scenario.

Arizona: Former President Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 6 points according the RealClear Politics’ aggregate numbers (RealClearPolling)​.

Lost in the chaos of Arizona’s 2020 election tribulations were the results of the 2022 gubernatorial election. In what turned out to be a closer election than predicted, Kari Lake, a fervent Trump supporter, lost that election to Katie Hobbs by less than 18,000 votes.

Today, Trump’s popularity in Arizona looms large in the Senate race between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Lake for the seat being vacated by Independent Kyrsten Sinema.  Recent polls show Gallego running slightly ahead of Lake – 3.4 points on average, easily within the margin of error, but Trump’s influence has a growing number of pundits seeing Lake gaining the seat. (RealClearPolling)​​ (Race to the WH)​.

Ohio: Trump holds a strong 7-point lead over Biden​.(RealClearPolling) 

While polling hasn’t been extensive in Ohio Senate race, they find incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown leading by 5 over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. Trump’s growingpopularity means Sherrod’s position is tenuous.  This race is crucial for Republicans aiming to flip a seat in a state that has leaned Republican in recent presidential elections​ (RealClearPolling)​

Nevada: Trump leads by 5 points in this crucial swing state​ (RealClearPolling)​.

Here again, Trump’s strength across the state is clearly influencing another the Senate race. In Nevada, incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by less than 5 points – again, well within the margin of error.(RealClearPolling)​.

Overriding the polling, Democrats rightly understand the weak position Biden is in.  Biden’s approval rating has steadily eroded over the past 16 months from 44.7% in February 2023 to just touching 40% today.  And those numbers are well off the pre-second term election ratings held by George W. Bush (50%) and Barack Obama (48%).  Biden’s approval is even 2 points lower than Donald Trump’s at this point in the campaign.

Of course, Republicans face the same dilemma they did in 2020, where Trump’s legions didn’t necessarily help GOP down ticket candidates.  Still, in American politics, 139 days is lightyears from November 5.