Polls Show Growing Lead in Arizona Senate Race

The Arizona Senate race between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake is shaping up to be a decisive contest, with Gallego maintaining a clear and growing lead in the polls. As early voting begins, Gallego, a five-term Congressman, holds a 10-point advantage over Lake among likely voters, according to the latest poll from RMG Research conducted for the Napolitan Institute. This poll, showing Gallego leading 52% to 42%, is consistent with other recent surveys and falls outside the margin of error.

Gallego's position appears to be solidifying as he has consistently reached or exceeded 50% support in six consecutive polls and seven out of the last eight, with no significant fluctuation in his lead. Since August, Gallego has been ahead in 28 consecutive polls, according to data tracked by FiveThirtyEight. This polling streak includes a wide range of surveys, and Gallego’s lead has stretched into double digits in six of the last 12 polls.

The race took on a clearer focus after Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who won her seat as a Democrat but later switched to independent, dropped out of the race in March. Since then, Gallego has led 49 out of 52 polls, further demonstrating his strength as the Democratic candidate.

On the Republican side, only two polls over the summer indicated a tie, while just one July poll conducted by Lake’s campaign showed her with a slim lead. This suggests that Lake’s ability to capture a majority of voter support remains limited, especially as the campaign progresses. Even after Lake was formally named the Republican nominee, Gallego maintained a comfortable margin, leading 48% to 41% in August on average, and extending that lead to an average of 51% to 42% in September, based on 17 polls conducted that month.

Political analysts are generally in agreement about the current state of the race. Real Clear Politics gives Gallego an average lead of 7.8 percentage points since early September. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Democratic,” while Inside Elections considers it “tilt Democratic.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball similarly rates the race as “leans Democratic,” reflecting the broad consensus that Gallego has the upper hand.

One key factor contributing to this dynamic is the wide disparity in campaign spending. According to AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research firm, Democrats and their allies had outspent Republicans and their supporters $44 million to $14 million as of late September. This massive spending gap is a significant indicator of the resources being poured into the Arizona race, which has the largest spending disparity among competitive Senate races this cycle. By comparison, Senate races in other battleground states, like Ohio, are seeing much closer spending between Democrats and Republicans.

The investment in the Arizona race is part of a broader trend that reflects the changing political landscape of the state. Once a Republican stronghold, Arizona has shifted toward the Democrats in recent years. Since 2018, Democrats have won three consecutive Senate races, ending a 30-year Republican winning streak in the state. Kyrsten Sinema’s victory in 2018 as a Democrat was followed by Mark Kelly’s win in 2020, and Democrats have won by about 2 percentage points in each of the last three Senate elections. This momentum indicates that Arizona may be tilting further into Democratic territory, especially as Gallego continues to outperform his Republican challenger.

Lake, who is closely aligned with the pro-Trump wing of the GOP, may face challenges in appealing to moderates and independents, two groups critical to winning statewide in Arizona. Her campaign has struggled to overcome Gallego’s sustained lead, and the large gap in fundraising could limit her ability to mount an effective counteroffensive as the election approaches.

While the election is far from over, and polling only provides a snapshot of voter sentiment at a given moment, Gallego’s consistent performance across a wide range of surveys and the backing of significant financial resources suggest that he is well-positioned to secure Arizona’s Senate seat. The race, however, remains a key battleground in the larger fight for control of the U.S. Senate in 2024.