The final round of congressional primaries before the November 5, 2024, election delivered several significant outcomes in New Hampshire, Delaware, and Rhode Island. As political landscapes continue to shift, these races serve as a reminder of the challenges and opportunities that both major parties face, with key seats opening up and established political figures defending their positions.
New Hampshire's 2nd District: A Battleground Seat
The Democratic primary in New Hampshire's 2nd District was marked by a fierce competition, as Maggie Goodlander, a former official in President Biden's administration, emerged victorious over Colin Van Ostern, a former executive council member. Goodlander secured 62% of the vote in a race that was closely watched due to its contentious nature.
Goodlander now faces the challenge of holding onto a battleground district that, despite being slightly tilted in favor of Democrats, remains fiercely contested. She will go up against Lily Tang Williams, chair of the New Hampshire Asian American Coalition, who won the 13-candidate Republican primary with 34% of the vote. Williams' outsider appeal and conservative stances will provide an interesting dynamic in the general election, although Democrats hold the advantage according to Inside Elections, which rates the race as Likely Democratic.
This primary exemplifies the ongoing debate over the future of the Democratic Party, as its candidates navigate between progressive ideals and pragmatic politics. For Republicans, the crowded primary showcased the party's shifting priorities, with Williams as a voice for more hardline conservative positions.
New Hampshire's 1st District: A More Competitive Seat
In the state’s 1st District, Russell Prescott, a businessman and former Executive Council member, won a seven-way Republican primary to challenge Democratic Representative Chris Pappas. With 26% of the vote, Prescott faces an uphill battle against Pappas, who is seeking a fourth term and already had $2.1 million on hand as of late August. Inside Elections rates this race as Likely Democratic, but New Hampshire’s 1st District has historically been more competitive than the 2nd.
Though Pappas faced minimal resistance in his own primary, Prescott's win sets the stage for a potentially closer race in November. The national Republican Party may view this seat as a potential flip if the electoral winds shift in their favor.
Rhode Island Senate: Whitehouse Cruises to Victory
In Rhode Island, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse easily turned back a primary challenge from Michael Costa, a self-funding Democrat. Whitehouse's substantial 67-point margin of victory underscores his dominance in the state. Costa, who loaned his campaign $200,000, ran on a platform advocating for 12-year term limits in Congress but failed to make a significant dent in Whitehouse’s support.
Meanwhile, the Republican primary to face Whitehouse in November was won by state Rep. Patricia Morgan, who led her opponent Raymond McKay by a comfortable 30-point margin. However, this race is rated Solid Democratic, and Whitehouse’s strong position heading into the general election suggests that Rhode Island will remain firmly in the Democratic column.
Delaware: A Historic Bid in the House Race
Perhaps the most notable development came from Delaware, where Sarah McBride, a Delaware state senator, won the Democratic primary for the state’s at-large House seat. If elected in November, McBride would make history as the first openly transgender member of Congress. McBride secured an overwhelming 84% of the vote, and Inside Elections rates the race as Solid Democratic, making her favored to win the seat in November.
McBride’s path to Congress is a significant moment for both LGBTQ+ representation and Democratic politics in Delaware. She will face John Whalen, the Republican nominee, but in a state that leans heavily Democratic, McBride’s candidacy looks poised for success.
The seat became open when Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester chose to run for the Senate, seeking to replace retiring Senator Thomas R. Carper. Both Rochester and her Republican opponent, Eric Hansen, were unopposed in their respective primaries, and Inside Elections rates the Senate race as Solid Democratic.
New Hampshire Governor: Ayotte Takes the Lead
The governor’s race in New Hampshire, opened by the retirement of Republican Governor Chris Sununu, saw a notable Republican primary win for former Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Ayotte, who had 69% of the vote, is now well-positioned to compete in what is expected to be a closely watched race in November. The Democratic primary was more competitive, with former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig emerging as the victor with 49% of the vote.
Inside Elections rates the race as a Toss-up, meaning that both Ayotte and Craig will face a highly competitive general election, with the possibility of New Hampshire’s governorship flipping between parties.
A Prelude to November
These primary results reflect broader national trends, as both Democrats and Republicans brace for a challenging general election in November. With key seats at stake, the outcomes in New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Delaware will offer a glimpse into the strength of each party's strategy heading into the final months of the 2024 campaign. As the nation looks ahead, the lessons from these primaries will shape the contests to come.
Senate Ballot Box Scores
Comments