The Battlegrounds to Watch: Analyzing the Most Competitive House Races in the 2024 Midterms

The Battlegrounds to Watch: Analyzing the Most Competitive House Races in the 2024 Midterms

As the 2024 elections approach, several House races across the United States stand out as particularly competitive, with the balance of power in Congress potentially hinging on their outcomes. These contests feature a mix of incumbents defending their seats in swing districts, challengers capitalizing on changing demographics, and open races where no incumbent is running. Here’s a closer look at some of the most hotly contested battles:

Pennsylvania's 7th District: Susan Wild vs. Ryan Mackenzie

U.S. Rep. Susan Wild (D-7th District) is locked in a fierce battle against Republican state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lehigh). Wild had her strongest fundraising quarter this cycle in the period ending June 30, raising $1.53 million, triple the amount Mackenzie raised. With a Q2 haul of $1.53 million, Wild’s campaign has amassed $5.07 million this cycle, while Mackenzie has raised just over $675,000 since July 2023. Wild's significant cash-on-hand advantage of $3.85 million overshadows Mackenzie's $365,000, giving her a financial edge in the district's R+2.1 environment. Both national parties view this race as a priority, with the NRCC targeting Wild’s seat for a flip and the DCCC placing her on its “Frontline” program. The Lehigh Valley, a bellwether for state and national elections, is a hotspot with high-profile visits from both Trump and Biden this year. Wild’s open criticism of Biden’s electability adds a twist, making this race even more unpredictable.

California's 22nd District: David Valadao vs. Rudy Salas

Republican David Valadao, known for his moderate stances and willingness to break from his party, is defending his seat against Democrat Rudy Salas. Valadao's district has a D+5 rating, making it an uphill battle for any Republican. Polls show Salas leading by a slight margin of 49% to Valadao’s 46%. However, Valadao's strong local ties and bipartisan appeal give him a fighting chance. Salas, a state assemblyman, is banking on the district's Democratic lean and his own record of public service to unseat Valadao. Valadao raised $615,154 between April 1 and June 30, bringing his total to $3.44 million with $2 million cash on hand. Salas raised over $1.3 million from more than 18,000 individuals in the first three months of 2024, entering the general election season with more than $1,740,000 cash on hand.

Texas's 28th District: Henry Cuellar vs. Cassy Garcia

Democrat Henry Cuellar, a centrist in a district that is becoming increasingly progressive, faces a challenge from Republican Cassy Garcia. Cuellar's moderate positions on issues like immigration and his pro-business stance appeal to a broad range of voters, but Garcia’s conservative platform and support from the Republican base make this a race to watch. Recent polling shows Cuellar with a narrow lead of 47% to Garcia’s 45%, indicating a competitive contest in this changing district.

Virginia's 2nd District: Jen Kiggans vs. Missy Cotter Smasal

In Virginia's 2nd District, Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans is defending her seat against Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal. This coastal district has swung back and forth in recent elections, reflecting its true battleground status. Polling shows Kiggans with a slight lead of 49% to Cotter Smasal’s 46%. Kiggans, a Navy veteran, focuses on economic growth and reducing government spending, while Cotter Smasal, also a veteran, emphasizes national security and veterans' issues. The outcome here will likely hinge on turnout and the national political climate.

Arizona's 1st District: David Schweikert vs. Jevin Hodge

Republican David Schweikert, facing multiple ethics investigations, is vulnerable in Arizona's 1st District. Democrat Jevin Hodge, a young community organizer, is running a vigorous campaign that highlights Schweikert’s legal troubles and positions himself as a fresh start for the district. Polls show Hodge leading with 50% to Schweikert’s 44%, suggesting that the district's changing demographics, with a growing Hispanic population, could tilt the balance in Hodge’s favor.

Michigan's 7th District: Curtis Hertel vs. Tom Barrett

The race to replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in the House is expected to be one of the most competitive elections of the 2024 cycle, and it could come down to which party has the most money to spare. Republican candidate Tom Barrett leads Democrat Curtis Hertel by 7 percentage points, garnering 44% of the vote compared to Hertel’s 37%, according to internal polling commissioned by the Barrett campaign and obtained by the Washington Examiner. The polling memo shows Barrett holds an advantage over Hertel thanks to stronger name recognition in the district, which he likely accumulated after running against Slotkin in the 2022 midterm elections. The district has been rated as a toss-up by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Nevada's 3rd District: Susie Lee vs. Drew Johnson

In Nevada’s 3rd District, Democrat Susie Lee is defending her seat against Republican Drew Johnson in a district with a nearly even partisan split. Lee’s focus on education and healthcare resonates with suburban voters, while Johnson’s emphasis on economic issues and a tough stance on crime appeals to conservative and independent voters. Polls indicate a dead heat, with both candidates polling at 48%. The outcome here could reflect broader national trends in suburban voting patterns.

These competitive House races will be closely watched as indicators of the national political mood and the strength of each party’s messaging and ground game. With control of the House potentially at stake, both parties are likely to pour significant resources into these key districts, making them battlegrounds not just of local importance, but of national significance as well.