With the 2024 presidential election just weeks away, the vice-presidential debate between Ohio Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz provided a final chance for voters to see both parties' platforms laid out before a national audience. In a tight race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the debate took on added significance. Trump’s refusal to debate Harris again made this the closest we will get to a head-to-head showdown before Election Day.
While vice-presidential debates typically don’t sway elections, the Vance-Walz faceoff offered a clear contrast in policy and philosophy, highlighting the ideological divide between conservative and progressive visions for America’s future. The debate centered on key issues like America’s role in the Middle East, immigration, inflation, and abortion—issues that could tip the balance in a closely contested race.
Polls leading into the debate showed a slight but consistent lead for Harris. According to 538, Harris is polling at 48.6% compared to Trump’s 45.9%. This is an increase from four weeks ago when she led by a narrower 47.1% to Trump’s 43.9%. Similarly, 270toWin shows Harris leading Trump by 3.8%, a marginal bump from the 3% lead she held last week. Betting markets, like those tracked by RealClearPolitics, also favor Harris, with a +2% spread over Trump, though this lead has fluctuated slightly over the past month.
Vance used the debate stage to underscore the key pillars of the conservative platform, emphasizing a strong national defense, border security, and reducing government overreach. His call to address illegal immigration resonated with voters concerned about border security and economic strain. He also pointed to the inflationary pressures that have defined the Biden-Harris years, positioning the GOP as the party of fiscal responsibility and economic freedom.
Walz, representing the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, focused on government solutions to issues like housing affordability, healthcare, and reducing gun violence. His stance on expanding government programs and promoting social justice reflects the broader agenda of the Harris campaign but risks alienating moderate voters concerned about economic mismanagement and rising inflation.
Abortion rights also featured prominently in the debate, with Vance advocating for a states-first approach that aligns with conservative values, while Walz doubled down on the Democratic platform of unrestricted access. This is a key issue that energizes both bases but could be decisive in swing districts where voters lean more centrist.
Despite Harris' lead in national polls, the race remains tight. Vance's debate performance, which echoed Trump’s message of law and order, economic growth, and border security, could shift undecided voters, particularly in swing states. His sharp critique of Biden-era economic policies played into voter concerns about the rising cost of living, housing shortages, and the broader direction of the economy.
Yet, Harris’s steady polling advantage should not be overlooked. Her lead has held relatively firm over the last month, and the debate did little to dramatically alter the landscape. However, with margins as close as they are, even a small shift in key battleground states could change the course of the election.
Both campaigns know that every vote will count in this fiercely competitive election. Vance’s appeal to traditional conservative values may shore up support among the GOP base, while Walz’s progressive agenda aims to energize young and liberal voters. But with Harris consistently holding a narrow lead and the race hinging on a handful of key states, nothing is certain.
As Election Day approaches, the question remains whether Trump’s populist base can once again upend the polls, or if Harris will solidify her lead and make history as the first female president. The polls may favor Harris, but as we learned in 2016, surprises can happen when the margin is this slim.
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