The King is Stepping Aside. Long Live the Queen?

For just under a month, a truckload of powerful Democrats on the East and West coasts have been calling – begging – for Joe Biden to relinquish his job title and step aside as their candidate for president.

Yesterday, Sunday, July 21, a date that will live – wait, wait, the last thing anyone wants is plagiarizing on Biden’s exit. Yesterday, the President issued a brief press release announcing he’d given in. How we got here and where we go from here, to paraphrase former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, involves a whole lot of known unknowns.

We know when and where it started, though. June 27 on a soundstage in Atlanta, Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off for the first of what was to be two debates.

For many of the Biden faithful, it would become the moment they lost faith. Slowly, at first, like a drip from the kitchen faucet.

Biden’s performance was painful to watch. He struggled, froze from time to time, rambled on, and no one came to save him – to the credit of CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.

Following one long, jumbled answer to an immigration question, Biden trailed off somewhat incoherently, to which Trump said to the moderators and America: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of this, and I really don’t think he knows what he said, either.”

Certainly, for some, it was the first time they saw for themselves what conservatives had been saying for at least three years. Biden’s mental capacity had diminished. Considerably.

So, the chorus began, softly, then began to rise, until, following a New York Times Op-Ed by George Clooney, the crescendo was too much for Biden to withstand.

It should be noted, though, the mainstream media was more than a little duplicitous. Over the course of Biden’s presidency, while critics, largely conservatives to be sure, called out his decline, the mainstream media, and other players, like the coven on The View, conducted what would best be called a gaslighting campaign to protect him.

What was as disgusting as it was angering, was the mock surprise Tapper, and others voiced following the debate. The emperor stood naked in front of the nation, and the media feigned ignorance.

Biden endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, to replace him. He was joined by most of the usual suspects: Bill and Hillary Clinton, the Congressional Black Caucus, California Representative Adam Schiff, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

Absent was the Democrats' biggest name – no, not Clooney – Barack Obama. In a statement praising Biden, Obama said he believed that party leaders would create a process to find “an outstanding nominee.” Why he would keep his distance isn’t clear.

Shapiro was thought to be a possible candidate, as was California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer. They’re out. In fact, it appears, for the moment, the Democrat seas have calmed and Harris will be the Democrats' second female candidate for president.

For the next 48 hours – maybe less – political minds and candidates are going to spend a lot of time figuring out just where they stand in all of this.

If Trump ends his Convention speech at the 25, 30-minute mark, they would have much less to consider. He would have ridden a Tsunami out of Milwaukee and brought a lot of new and old Republican sorts back to Washington, D.C. with him.

Unfortunately, the placid, restrained Bruce Banner-Trump gave way to the Hulk-Trump (updating the Jekyll and Hyde metaphor), and allowed the Dems just enough to get their toe in the door.

There is this, however. Vice President Harris, Biden’s Border Czar, among other things, now carries the Biden mantle and all that drove Biden’s numbers into the ground in the first place.

What This Means for Down-Ballot Races

With Harris now at the top of the ticket, the landscape of the 2024 election shifts dramatically. Down-ballot races are likely to feel the ripple effects of this change. Harris, while carrying Biden's baggage, also brings her own unique strengths and weaknesses. Her controversial engagement (or lack thereof) on immigration will bring scrutiny from left and right, particularly in southwest battleground states.

Impact on Poll Numbers and Party: The Harris-(InsertNameHere) ticket’s poll numbers will probably experience a temporary boost from the change, as the novelty of a new candidate often garners initial support. However, Harris's historical unpopularity among certain demographics might limit this bump – and quickly. These poll numbers may also shift as the party shows it’s hand over the next few days/week regarding their acceptance of the President passing the baton to Harris. There are still A LOT of democratic powerbrokers who have not weighed in on this yet. Could go either way.