The Polls They Are A-Changin’ – If Only A Little

Ah, the polls! They're like the weather in New England: if you don't like them, just wait five minutes. Former President Donald Trump is finding this out the hard way as he navigates the choppy waters of public opinion, his hush money felony conviction not doing him any favors for his 2024 prospects.

With the clock ticking down to November, Trump and President Joe Biden are neck-and-neck in most polls. A recent CBS News/YouGov survey has Trump narrowly leading Biden nationally with 50 percent to 49 percent. But in those all-important swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—Biden has a slim lead, 50 percent to Trump's 49 percent. It's like watching a political version of "Survivor," where every vote counts and alliances can shift in a heartbeat.

 Trump's camp, ever the optimists, pointed out that their guy is still leading in national and battleground state averages. However, the CBS poll highlighted a significant detail: Trump is lagging behind Biden among independent voters, who are basically the undecided jury in this political courtroom drama. The poll showed that 50 percent of independents prefer Biden, while 48 percent lean towards Trump. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll echoed this, showing 41 percent of independents supporting Biden and 38 percent for Trump. With a significant chunk of independents still on the fence, it's clear these voters could play the role of kingmaker come November.

Biden's team is probably popping a few champagne corks over the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll, which has him leading Trump 46 percent to 44 percent—the first time he’s had the upper hand since October 2023. It seems Trump's legal woes might be tipping the scales, much like Nixon's Watergate scandal did back in the day, giving voters pause about another term for Trump.

On the economic front, a Financial Times/University of Michigan poll shows that voters are starting to warm up to Biden’s handling of the economy. Trump still leads, but his advantage has shrunk from 11 points in February to just four points in June. Erik Gordon from the Ross School of Business reminds us that the economy is still the top concern for voters. As history has shown, from Herbert Hoover to Jimmy Carter, if the economy's in trouble, the incumbent is in hot water.

So, as we head into the final stretch of this campaign marathon, both candidates will be doing their best to win over those crucial independent voters. Because in the end, it’s not just about winning the polls; it’s about winning the hearts—and votes—of the American people. And that, my friends, is the ultimate reality show.