In his recent rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump, with characteristic bravado, declared that he is leading in the polls by a staggering 93%, adding that an election shouldn’t even be necessary. This declaration, while absurd on its face, is not merely another instance of Trumpian hyperbole. It is a dangerous prelude to something far more sinister: the groundwork for an election denial narrative that could once again plunge our nation into chaos.
The number itself is, of course, fantastical. Even in Trump’s most favorable internal polling, no such figure exists. His claim is not rooted in any reality known to those who study public opinion, but that is precisely the point. The truth of the statement is irrelevant. What matters is the message it sends to his base: that Trump is unbeatable, and that any outcome other than a decisive victory for him is, by definition, fraudulent.
This rhetoric is not new, but it is intensifying. Trump has long flirted with the idea that any election he loses must be rigged. We saw this in 2020, when he refused to accept the results and instead fomented the baseless claim that the election had been stolen. The insurrection on January 6th was the bloody consequence of those lies—a tragic testament to the power of Trump's words when they are taken to heart by those unwilling to accept a peaceful transfer of power.
What we are witnessing now is the laying of groundwork for a similar narrative in 2024. By preemptively declaring his dominance in the polls, Trump is setting the stage for more election denial, making it clear that he will not go quietly if the voters do not deliver him a second term. His followers, many of whom have been radicalized by years of conspiracy theories and incendiary rhetoric, are being primed to reject any outcome other than a Trump victory. The logical conclusion of this mindset is that if Trump loses, it must be because the election was stolen—again.
This is a recipe for disaster. The events of January 6th demonstrated the real-world consequences of such rhetoric. When people are told, repeatedly and insistently, that their victory has been stolen from them, they do not sit idly by. They act. They storm the Capitol. They threaten election officials. They sow chaos and violence in the name of preserving their leader’s power.
Trump’s remarks in Wilkes-Barre are a chilling reminder that he is once again leading his supporters down this perilous path. The casual suggestion that an election is unnecessary because he is so far ahead is not just bluster; it is a signal. It tells his base that the legitimacy of the election is already in question, that their leader is entitled to victory regardless of what the votes may say. This is how democratic norms are eroded—by making the extraordinary seem ordinary, by convincing people that their grievances justify extraordinary measures.
As we approach the 2024 election, it is imperative that we recognize the warning signs for what they are. Trump’s rhetoric is not simply the boastful exaggerations of a politician on the stump. It is a harbinger of the turbulence to come if he does not get his way. The echoes of 2020 are already reverberating, and the potential for violence looms large once again. The question is whether our institutions, and indeed our democracy, can withstand another assault on the truth.
If we allow Trump’s lies to go unchallenged, if we fail to hold the line against the creeping normalization of election denial, we risk repeating the darkest chapters of our recent history. The stakes could not be higher, and the time to confront this danger is now, before it is too late.
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