Trump’s New Mexico Gains Put Senate Race on the Radar

New Mexico was once a fairly red state – Republican Pete Domenici retired in 2009 after serving five terms in the United States Senate, and Susana Martinez served as governor from 2011 to 2019. Martinez was term limited. But New Mexico was steadily drifting blue and today its Congressional delegation is all Democrat, and liberal Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is concluding her second term.

To top it off, in 2020, Joe Biden carried the state by a 54-44 margin.

So, when the latest presidential polls revealed Donald Trump in a virtual tie with Joe Biden in New Mexico, more than a few Democrat eyebrows raised in concern. The results exposed the continued aftershocks of Biden’s miserable debate performance. Current numbers from various polls compiled by sources like The Hill and RealClearPolling show Trump having an edge over Biden in the state.

And there is a growing sense that, unlike 2020, Trump is helping down-ticket GOP candidates, and the latest New Mexico Senate polls seem to support this idea. This, along with the fact that their Senate candidate comes with a brand-friendly name, has party leaders increasingly optimistic.

Nella Domenici, daughter of the state’s late political icon, is a novice – a businesswoman running against a political professional and Washington-insider, incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich. Down by nearly double-digits for most of the campaign, she’s pulled within 2 (44-42) of Heinrich in polls taken shortly after the Biden-Trump spectacle.

In a land where 43% of the voting-age population is Hispanic – by far the highest share of any state – Republicans note Biden lost ground with Hispanics nationwide in 2020. Domenici, whose father was beloved by New Mexico’s Hispanic voters, looks to capitalize on this, and the fact that Trump made substantial gains with Hispanics in 2020.

But historically incumbency eclipses most circumstances, and money is the reason why. Heinrich holds a decisive cash-on-hand advantage over Domenici -- $4.4 million to $1.25. Much of Heinrich’s money has come from lawyers and Big Pharma. Domenici’s donors have been fairly diverse, with herself as her largest contributor.

Even with the presidential race in a dead heat, it’s hard to deny that Heinrich still has the upper hand. However, the dynamics have changed, and Heinrich can no longer sleepwalk to victory.

No doubt, Domenici’s last name is an asset, particularly among older voters who recall her father’s 36-year Senate career and all that he accomplished for the state. Equally important is the fact that absent a primary challenger, Domenici didn’t have to run to the right, so she dodged taking positions on controversial issues like abortion and gun rights.

Running in a border state inundated with illegal immigrants, coupled with an economy that’s taken a beating over past 3 ½ years – New Mexico’s General Fund relies on oil and gas revenues, two things that don’t mix with the Biden and Governor Lujan’s green agenda – Domenici has the luxury of pounding Heinrich with voters’ top two concerns.

Nationally, the big Republican finance committees are delighted that, like several of the party’s 2024 Senate recruits in other states, Domenici – the former CFO at the investment management firm Bridgewater Associates – has shown she’ll put her money where her voice can be heard. By mid-May she’d loaned her campaign $510,000 – with likely more on the way. That ensures Heinrich won’t have the airwaves to himself. And, as the race tightens Democrats may be forced to put cash in a state that they’ve long believed a gimme.