Virginia Primaries Show Trump's Continued Influence on GOP

Tuesday's congressional primaries in Virginia once again demonstrated the powerful grip that former President Donald Trump still holds over the Republican Party. In the closely watched 5th District GOP primary, Trump's endorsed candidate Hung Cao gave incumbent Rep. Bob Good a stiff challenge, with the race still too close to call as of Wednesday morning.

The fact that a first-term congressman like Good, who had aligned himself with Trump's Make America Great Again agenda, found himself in such a tough re-election battle simply by lacking the former president's explicit endorsement underscores Trump's kingmaker status among Republican voters. Despite Good's conservative bona fides, Trump's backing of Cao appeared to be enough to seriously threaten the incumbent's political future.

Mark Rozell of George Mason University referred to this as the "overriding Trump factor" at play - the ability of the former president to potentially make or break Republican candidates with just a nod. This dynamic played out not just in the 5th District, but also loomed large in the feisty Republican primary for the state's 7th District as well.

Trump's diehard supporters seem to view curry favor with him as a litmus test for Republican candidates. Those who earned his endorsement, or at minimum avoided overtly crossing him, were rewarded with enthusiasm and turnout from his MAGA base. Candidates who drew Trump's ire, like incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney in her recent primary defeat, found themselves swiftly cast aside by the party's pro-Trump wing.

For Virginia Republicans, the primary results highlight both Trump's continued power within the party but also the intense intra-party tensions his involvement can create. As the GOP looks to retake majorities in Congress, keeping the former president's America First supporters engaged and energized will be crucial. However, Trump's heavyhandedness in playing favorites could risk alienating non-MAGA Republicans as well.

As the general election nears, Republican candidates who survived their Trump-influenced primaries must now pivot to court a broader conservative coalition. But walking that tightrope between Trump loyalty and broader electability promises to be enormously challenging. Virginia's primaries demonstrated once again that the MAGA movement's grasp over the GOP remains as strong as ever.