Will the Vice Presidential Debate Matter?

As the vice-presidential debate approaches in this contentious 2024 election, the stakes could not be higher for both Kamala Harris and her Republican counterpart. Historically, vice-presidential debates have served as mere appetizers to the more significant, sometimes historic, showdowns between presidential candidates. But in an age of hyper-polarization, fragmented media, and ever-shifting voter alliances, this year's vice-presidential face-off could have an outsized impact on swing voters in key states.

While the office of the vice president has often been regarded as inconsequential, the debate offers an opportunity to showcase policy depth, composure under pressure, and a broader vision for governance. The importance of these factors was demonstrated in the 2020 debate between then-Vice President Mike Pence and Kamala Harris. Pence, a steady hand from the Trump administration, projected a calm, experienced demeanor while Harris was tasked with defending the Biden administration's platform and vision for a post-Trump America. Their clash, though somewhat overshadowed by the presidential debates, nonetheless crystallized for many voters the ideological divides between the two parties.

In 2024, the stakes for Harris are arguably even higher. Now serving as President Biden's heir apparent, she is not only the vice president but also a presumptive future leader of the Democratic Party. Her performance will serve as a direct reflection of the Biden administration’s successes and failures over the past four years, especially in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona, where voters remain divided on key issues like the economy, immigration, and healthcare. A strong showing from Harris could reassure swing voters, while a lackluster performance could amplify Republican critiques about her competency.

Conversely, the Republican vice-presidential candidate faces a different but equally consequential challenge. For many voters, the vice-presidential pick is often a symbolic nod to party factions that the presidential nominee may not fully embody. If Trump is the Republican nominee in 2024, his running mate will need to perform the delicate balancing act of distancing themselves from the more controversial aspects of Trump's legacy while capitalizing on his enduring popularity among the base. In states like Georgia, where margins of victory are razor-thin, the vice-presidential candidate’s ability to articulate a vision that reassures moderate Republicans and independent voters could mean the difference between winning or losing.

In these swing states, where margins of victory are razor-thin, even a small percentage of undecided or swing voters could determine the outcome. A vice-presidential debate performance, in this context, becomes crucial, as it offers an unfiltered view of each candidate’s readiness for leadership in a time of national crisis. With the vice-presidential candidates under intense scrutiny, a poor debate performance can have lasting ramifications, shifting public perception and media narratives in critical ways.

Looking back at past vice-presidential debates, we can see how pivotal these moments can be. The 1988 debate between Senator Lloyd Bentsen and Senator Dan Quayle offered a now-famous moment when Bentsen, responding to Quayle’s comparison of himself to JFK, quipped: “Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.” The exchange solidified Quayle's image as an inexperienced lightweight, a shadow that followed him throughout his political career. Likewise, Sarah Palin’s 2008 debate with Joe Biden was closely watched for its potential to bolster or diminish her populist appeal, given concerns about her readiness for high office.

In more recent memory, Mike Pence’s 2020 debate performance was lauded for his calm and measured approach, despite the growing divisiveness within the Trump administration. For Kamala Harris, the 2020 debate presented a double-edged sword: she needed to defend the Biden agenda while confronting a sitting vice president with more governing experience than she had at the time. Her performance, though combative, showed her ability to go on the offensive without alienating moderate voters.

The current election, with its increasingly narrow focus on a handful of battleground states, means that a poor performance by either candidate in the debate could easily tilt the electoral scales. In states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where shifts in suburban and independent voters were key to Biden's 2020 victory, Harris’s ability to articulate a coherent vision and defend the administration’s policies will be under a microscope.

For the Republican candidate, the stakes are equally high. They must navigate the complex landscape of Trump's political legacy, speaking to the base without alienating moderates. This task will be particularly challenging in Sun Belt states like Arizona and Georgia, where a growing, diverse electorate demands nuance and policy sophistication rather than the bombastic rhetoric of the past.

In 2024, the vice-presidential debate will be more than a warm-up act for the presidential candidates. It will be a defining moment in its own right, as both candidates represent their party’s future as much as its present. For Harris, the debate offers a crucial opportunity to solidify her role as the next leader of the Democratic Party, to reaffirm her capability in the eyes of swing voters, and to counter the narrative of a disjointed and ineffective administration. For the Republican vice-presidential candidate, it presents a moment to define their political brand, distance themselves from the most contentious aspects of the Trump era, and appeal to an electorate weary of partisanship and division.

In key battleground states, where elections can be decided by narrow margins, a strong vice-presidential debate performance could sway undecided voters and reshape the trajectory of the campaign. Conversely, a misstep could signal to voters that the party in question is out of touch with their concerns. In such a contentious political climate, the vice-presidential debate may very well serve as a referendum on both candidates’ fitness for high office—and, by extension, the future of their parties.