As President Biden continues to face significant challenges, including waning support among key demographics and increasing criticism from within his own party, the Democratic Party is grappling with an unsettling trend: younger voters are beginning to abandon their traditional allegiance to the Democrats.
Rising Discontent within the Democratic Party
Senator Cory Booker (D-N.J.), a notable figure who ran for president in 2020, recently hinted at his openness to supporting a Democratic nominee other than President Biden. Booker emphasized his reluctance to air internal party issues publicly, yet his comments signal a growing discontent with Biden's leadership. Booker, who has had direct conversations with the White House and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, stated his commitment to support "whoever our nominee is coming out of the convention," suggesting a readiness to back an alternative candidate.
Booker's remarks come on the heels of Senator Peter Welch (D-Vt.) openly calling for Biden to drop his reelection bid "for the good of the country," citing the president's age and capacity as central concerns. Welch pointed to polling data indicating that voters in key states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia are shifting towards the GOP. Additionally, Senators Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) have privately expressed fears that Biden could lose to Trump in the upcoming election. These sentiments underscore the unease within the Democratic Party about Biden's viability as a candidate in 2024.
A Surprising Shift among Young Voters
One of the most surprising shifts in recent political dynamics is the change in the GOP’s relationship with young voters. According to a Pew Research Center survey, young Americans are now evenly split between the two major parties, with 47 percent leaning Republican and 46 percent leaning Democratic. This marks a significant departure from previous years, where Democrats had a more substantial hold on the youth vote.
The GOP's growing appeal among young white Americans is particularly notable, with 62 percent identifying as Republican. This demographic shift challenges the conventional wisdom that younger generations would remain solidly Democratic, reflecting a broader reevaluation of party affiliations among young voters.
Several factors contribute to this shift. President Biden's diminishing support among young voters is a major reason. A New York Times/Siena poll revealed that only 23 percent of young voters hold a favorable view of Biden, with a staggering 84 percent believing he is too old to serve effectively. In contrast, Trump enjoys a 37 percent favorability rating among this group.
Struggles with Young Men
Moreover, the Democratic Party's difficulty in engaging young men has exacerbated the issue. Since 2016, the number of young men identifying as Democrats has significantly declined, with less than four in ten young men now aligning with the party. This demographic shift can be attributed to a perception that the Democratic Party focuses more on issues affecting girls and young women, while neglecting the challenges faced by boys and young men.
Republicans, particularly Trump, have capitalized on this sentiment by positioning themselves as defenders of men and traditional masculinity. Trump's engagement with social media platforms like TikTok, where he has amassed millions of followers, has also bolstered his appeal among young voters. Additionally, policy shifts within the GOP, such as a softer stance on abortion and the removal of references to "traditional marriage" from their platform, have resonated with younger voters.
Economic Concerns
The GOP’s appeal is also strengthened by its messaging on economic issues. Many young voters are concerned about the rising cost of living, student debt, and job prospects. Trump's promise to end the "Crypto crackdown" and remove taxes on tipping, for instance, speaks directly to young workers in the service industry. These policy positions, coupled with the GOP’s active presence on social media and Trump’s strategic reversal on banning TikTok, have made the Republican Party more relatable to young voters.
The economic struggles faced by young voters are stark. Tatem Carroll, an 18-year-old in Oregon’s Rogue Valley, expressed her fears about the future, highlighting how inflation and the rising cost of living have made it difficult for her and her boyfriend to start their lives together. She reminisces about the days under Trump when gas prices were lower, a sentiment echoed by many young voters who feel economically strained under the current administration.
“I’m like, am I gonna live with my parents forever because our economy is trash?” wonders Carroll. “It’s terrifying.”
She adds,
“I feel like I could’ve afforded a future,” she says about life under Trump. “But now I’m shit out of luck.”
Changing Perceptions
Political candidates frequently struggle to connect with young voters. Democrats have long relied on the endorsements of popular actors, musicians, and celebrities to bridge the cultural divide with young voters. Compare this list of Barack Obama’s celebrity endorsements to Mitt Romney’s. However, in the age of social media influencers, the cultural cache of movie stars has greatly diminished. Donald Trump’s podcast interview with Logan Paul, a popular YouTuber, was certainly more effective at reaching young people than Robert De Niro’s impromptu press conference at Trump’s New York trial.
Historically, one of the GOP’s key liabilities with young voters was that the party was full of old people who did not understand or care about the problems of ordinary Americans. But perceptions of the political parties have changed dramatically over the past decade. In 2013, 70 percent of Americans said the Republican Party was out of touch, compared to 51 percent who said the same of the Democratic Party. Now, slightly more Americans overall say it's the Democrats rather than Republicans who are disconnected (62 percent vs. 58 percent).
Looking Ahead
At this point, I’m not anticipating a generational realignment in political behavior. Biden’s advanced age, and his ongoing struggles to mount a vigorous defense of his record, offer clear opportunities for Trump and GOP candidates. But young voters are largely mistrustful of both political parties. Nearly four in ten young people have negative views of both the Democratic and Republican Party. There's also little evidence that the GOP has rehabilitated its image with young voters, but rather is benefiting more from broad pessimism about the country’s trajectory. More than three-quarters of young voters say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, a rate higher than any other age group.
Even a modest shift in the voting behavior of young adults would be incredibly consequential. If the Republican Party remains competitive with young voters it’s difficult to see any Democrat prevailing in November, but the political and cultural ramifications will stretch far beyond a single election.
As the Democratic Party struggles to retain the support of younger voters, President Biden's ongoing struggles and the growing discontent within his party underscore the volatility of the current political landscape. With prominent senators like Cory Booker signaling their openness to alternative candidates, the Democratic Party faces a pivotal moment in its efforts to secure its future electoral success and reconnect with younger generations.
Read more about this trend on The Free Press here.
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